NOAA: Near Normal or Below Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season Likely in 2014
Posted on June 2, 2014
NOAA expects a near normal or slightly below normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. They are predicting 8 to 13 named storms. NOAA's 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook was issued in May.
NOAA estimates a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:
- 8-13 Named Storms
- 3-6 Hurricanes
- 1-2 Major Hurricanes
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 40%-100% of the median.
NOAA says factors in its estimate include the likely development of El Nino this summer or early this fall. NOAA says models are predicting near-average or below average sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR).
As always it is important to note that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to cause potential devastation. NOAA says, "It only takes one storm hitting an area to cause a disaster, regardless of the overall activity predicted in the seasonal outlook."
NOAA also says it does not make landfall predictions in its outlook. NOAA says, "Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, which are only predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall."