Animation Shows How U.S. Airports Could Help Spread Next Pandemic
Posted on July 25, 2012
Airports will help rapidly spread the next deadly virus around the globe. Epidemiologists have been working to create mathematical models that describe the worldwide spread of disease. To date these models have focused on the final stages of epidemics, examining the locations that ultimately develop the highest infection rates.
A new model by researchers in MIT's Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (CEE) shifts the focus to the first few days of an epidemic, determining how likely the 40 largest U.S. airports are to influence the spread of a contagious disease originating in their home cities. The MIT model incorporates data that includes variations in travel patterns among individuals, the geographic locations of airports, the disparity in interactions among airports, and even waiting times at individual airports.
Kennedy Airport is ranked first by the model, followed by airports in Los Angeles, Honolulu, San Francisco, Newark, Chicago (O'Hare) and Washington (Dulles). Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport, which is first in number of flights, ranks eighth in contagion influence. Boston's Logan International Airport ranks 15th. The Honolulu airport only gets 30% as much traffic as the Kennedy Airport, but it ranks high because of its location in the Pacific Ocean and its many connections to distant, large and well-connected hubs. The animation was created by Juanes Research Group. Take a look:
The research was published here in PLOS One.